No luck with the restart.
Both the DofUpdater.exe file and the shortcut have the Priviledge level set to "Run this program as administrator." But for completeness I tried running both the raw .exe and the shortcut through rightclick->Run as Administrator and nothing has worked yet.
Any other suggestions?
All the log files I've found seem to be stock ones from the install so I don't know if there is any additional info I can provide.
DxDiag attached in case it's a potential hardware issue.